Bad news for those hoping for the demise of the Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi can give rise to significant changes in the Islamic Republic. The media outcry aroused in public opinion by the accident in which he lost his life Raisi it was certainly sensational, but, upon closer inspection, the political consequences linked to the president's death will be much lower than expected.
First of all, because in Iran it is not those who hold the office of President who hold the levers of power, but rather the Supreme Leaderthe highest religious and administrative office provided for by the Iranian Constitution, i.e. the ayatollah Ali Khameneiand the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, a constitutional body composed of twelve members, of which six theologians appointed directly by the Supreme Leader, and six jurists appointed by the judicial power, also dependent on the Supreme Leader.
Ergo, in Iran all power is concentrated in the hands of Ayatollah Khamenei, which is why the president's departure will not have significant implications on the stability of the government. Raisi's position will be temporarily occupied by the first executive vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, who will assume the role of interim president. In the meantime, the Guardian Council will have the task of organizing the election of a new president within fifty days, although the process provided for by the Iranian Constitution has very little that is democratic. In fact, it is the Council itself that examines the various candidatures, and, if necessary, the twelve members of the collegial body are even allowed to invalidate the popular vote. What's more: the Ayatollah, who as mentioned has full control of the Council, could even ask the Guardians to appoint Ebrahim Raisi's successor without even resorting to the polls.
In short, the Supreme Leader will comfortably and autonomously decide the modalities, timing and name of Raisi's successor, who, moreover, was not much loved by the Iranians themselves.
Furthermore, Ali Khamenei will now be able to exploit the incident for an anti-Western purpose, casting shadows on the possibility of US and Israeli involvement to further unite the Iranian people around his figure.
Moral: not only will Raisi's death not make the slightest dent in the fundamentalism of the Islamic Republic, but it may even end up reinforcing leadership from the ayatollah.