Commenting on the editorial I included some names and among these in the first place Lucio Caracciolo and Alessandro Orsini. Orsini says he never denied that Russia would attack Ukraine and that he never said the war would end quickly.
In reality, on the point of the wrong prediction I was thinking of the director of Limes Caracciolo and I have to give credit to Orsini for having been much more prudent.
Orsini has NATO has always been blamed of having forced Putin to deploy troops on the borders of Ukraine and has always maintained, unlike Putin himself, that in Russia’s actions there was no desire for conquest but exclusively a defensive reaction to NATO threats. So much so that on the eve of the invasion he wrote that only a secret agreement between Putin and Biden, with the US president renouncing any future expansion of NATO, would have avoided the escape.
I don’t think Orsini was right. No one at the time (including Putin) was thinking about Ukraine’s imminent entry into NATO or the EU. The reasons with which Putin immediately justified his special military operation were the protection of the Russophile population and the denazification of Ukraine. There anti-Nato rhetoric which he has occasionally used has not prevented him from passively accepting the entry of Finland and Sweden into the Western military organization.
On the second point, the rapid Russian victory, I do not agree with Professor Orsini’s denial. These he repeatedly stated that Russian victory was a giventhat Russia would “gut” Ukraine, that the only way to save the Ukrainians was to come to terms with Putin. He always added, this is the controversial point, that a European and American intervention would only have delayed Russia’s victory. History will give us an answer.
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