I try to summarize and integrate what is written by Spivak, referring, as always, to the original article.
Yes, because one of Trump’s declared objectives is report the manufacture in the USAmaking foreign production less competitive. Let’s not forget that the United States became extremely vulnerable in industrial production, dangerously compromising military safety. For example, there is only one obsolete factory for the production of military explosives, essential raw materials are missing for armaments and advanced electronics, naval shipbuilding is almost non -existent, and the list could continue. Beyond the economic considerations, for a superpower it is crucial to guarantee a minimum level of industrial self -sufficiency. Trump and his staff are certainly aware of the difficulties of this reindustrialization, but there are no alternatives. China is close. Therefore, duties are a tool, not an end.
However, a recurring objection concerns the commercial deficit: If it is true that the deficit in the goods is evident, considering the services and financial factors, the situation overturns. Here too, reality appears more complex. To extricate myself between a mountain of economic and financial data, I asked for help from artificial intelligence, obtaining the following framework:
1. Commercial balance of assets
In 2024, the United States recorded a commercial deficit of goods with the EU:
- US exports to EU: about 370.2 billion dollars (357 billion euros).
- US imports from the EU: about 605.8 billion dollars (584 billion euros).
- Commercial deficit of goods: about 235.6 billion dollars (227 billion euros).
This deficit reflects the greatest export of EU goods to the USA, with Germany and Italy among the main contributions.
2. Commercial balance of services
The United States have a commercial surplus in services with the EU. In 2023 (last complete data available):
- US service exports to EU: 396.4 billion euros.
- EU US service imports: 292.4 billion euros.
- Surplus in services: about 104 billion euros (109 billion dollars, with an average exchange rate of 1.05 USD/EUR).
For 2024, the preliminary data indicate a similar or slightly higher surplus, estimated between 109 and 110 billion euros (115-116 billion dollars), in line with the growth of the service trade.
This surplus is guided by sectors such as digital, professional, financial and intellectual properties, where US companies (e.g. Big Tech) boast a competitive advantage.
3. Overall balance of goods and services
Adding goods and services, the EU maintains a total commercial surplus:
- In 2023, the EU recorded a total surplus of approximately 48-52 billion euros (50-55 billion dollars), with a surplus in goods of 156 billion euros and a deficit in services of 104 billion euros.
- For 2024, considering the deficit in goods (about 227 billion euros) and the surplus in services (about 109 billion euros), the overall EU surplus is estimated at around 118 billion euros (about 124 billion dollars). This value is approximate, since the final data for 2024 are not yet complete.
4. Financial factors and other components of current matches
Commercial scale (goods and services) is only a part of the current matches, which include:
- Primary income (e.g. profits from foreign direct investments, dividends, interests).
- Secondary incomes (e.g. remittances, international aid).
- Financial flows (eg foreign direct investments, portfolio investments).
Primary income
The United States tend to have a surplus in primary income with the EU, thanks to the high profits of US multinationals in Europe (eg Apple, Google, Pfizer). In 2023, the US surplus in primary global incomes was significant, and with the EU it is estimated a positive contribution of about 50-80 billion dollars in 2024, in line with historical trends, although precise data is missing.
Remittances and other flows
The remittances and secondary transfers are less relevant between the USA and the EU, but the US benefits from positive net flows thanks to their attraction as a destination for global capital.
Overall estimate of the balance of current matches
In 2023, the deficit of US current matches with the EU was approximately 52 billion euros (0.2% of the US GDP), thanks to the surplus in the services and primary incomes that partially compensates for the deficit in goods. For 2024, assuming:
- Deficit in goods: -227 billion euros.
- Surplus in services: +109 billion euros.
- Primary income surplus: +50-80 billion euros (prudential estimate).
- Rethasions and other flows: negligible or slightly positive for the USA.
The deficit of US current matches with the EU would be reduced to about 38-68 billion euros (40-71 billion dollars). This value could be further attenuated by net financial flows (e.g. ide and portfolio investments), bringing the balance close to equality or a slight deficit for the USA.
Considerations and uncertainties
- Incomplete data for 2024: definitive data for primary services and income are not yet available; Therefore, the estimate is based on projections and trends of 2023.
- Exchange rate: fluctuations between dollar and euro can affect values.
- Commercial policies of Trump: the rates of 2024 (e.g. 25% on steel and aluminum) and the retaliation of the EU (eg duties on bourbon and motorcycles) may have altered the commercial flows, but the complete impact will be seen in 2025.
- Nature of the US deficit: the US commercial deficit is partly a consequence of the financial hegemony of the dollar, which allows to finance imports by issuing debt in dollars. This makes the deficit less problematic, but does not equate to a surplus.
Conclusion
In 2024, the United States They record a total commercial deficit with the EU, estimated between 38 and 68 billion euros (40-71 billion dollars) in current matches, considering primary goods, services and incomes. We cannot speak of a US commercial surplus, since the deficit in goods exceeds surplus in services and income. However, financial flows (e.g. ide and portfolio investments) mitigate the economic impact of this deficit, thanks to the ability of the USA to attract European capital (someone wondered why?).
This conclusion appears sensible and in line with American sentiment. It should be emphasized that the imbalance in the services derives mainly from the European inability to offer competitive alternatives compared to US companies. The case of Starlink highlights our technological backwardnessto the point of bordering the ridicule.
Returning to the article, the US economy, with a GDP of 29 trillion dollars (86,600 per capita dollars), is significantly more robust than that of the EU (19 trillion dollars, $ 45,300 per capita) (nobody wonders why?). However, The EU penalizes American competitiveness with stringent regulations on antitrustcensorship (vice -president Vance has mentioned disturbing examples at the last conference of Monaco), privacy (we spread a pitiful veil), dei (ditto), local content requirements (at least 50% for government purchases) and technical standards variable between countries, which make us onerous for US companies to operate in Europe.
Concrete examples include the automotive sector, with 757,654 vehicles imported from the USA against only 169,152 exported, and the agricultural one, where US exports to the EU grew only from 9 to 13 billion dollars in 25 years, while imports are tripled, reaching 34.5 billion. The EU requires high rates (up to 26% on fish and seafood, 22% on trucks, 10% on cars) and non -tariff barriers, such as restrictions on foreign property, labeling requirements and fines up to 20% of global turnover for digital service providers who do not comply with European regulations.
The article criticizes the EU to limit access to the US market in sectors such as cinema, television and legal professions, and for regulations on data and artificial intelligence that conflict with the US laws. He concludes that, without significant concessions from the EU, Trump should answer with targeted non -tariff rates and measuresattributing responsibility for economic costs to Europe.
What can I say, “many lack the originality of lacking originality. Lcidal madness is the courage to think beyond the boundaries of the banal.” O. Wilde.
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