Over the last ten years we have become accustomed to increasingly inclusive technology, for everyone. But it won’t be like this for long, according to what industry analysts from all over the world believe. The smartphone market, in particular, will act as a watershed: from a common object, accessible to most, it will become an asset to be cherished over time and no longer to be replaced at every change of season.
Cheap smartphones, -40% in 2030
The latest report from Counterpoint Research provides a precise analysis, which does not limit itself to predicting the future scenario, but sets precise dates: according to the research company, by 2030 the global market could lose over 230 million annual shipments of low-cost smartphones – at the Dollar-Euro exchange rate, empty for full, devices with a commercial value of just under 200 euros. The forecast is for a 40% decline in the ‘entry level’ segment between now and the next five years.
Driving the transformation – it is clear for all to see – on the one hand is the exponential increase in the costs of memories, chipsets and advanced components, on the other the need of tech giants to guarantee hardware specifications that can support increasingly complex algorithms and futuristic features driven by artificial intelligence. And when there is a shortage of raw materials, the large producer is careful not to give up the most advanced and expensive flagship products, which can guarantee greater financial income. Sacrificial lamb are products that offer a lower, if not minimal, margin. And therefore the cheapest smartphones.
Future consumer trends
If it is true that many consumers buy smartphones (read iPhone, mainly), even though they cannot, at least theoretically, afford them, it is equally true that those same consumers do not have enough purchasing power to be able to change devices very frequently, alternating very expensive phones with more affordable devices. Devices that in the medium term may no longer exist if the trend in the chip field does not undergo a decisive reversal.
In any case, with the ‘disappearance’ of the ‘entry level’, some consumers who are used to saving will at a certain point necessarily have to move towards higher ranges. Others may keep their mobile devices longer and take better care of them. And it goes without saying that the used and reconditioned market could undergo a real explosion.
Analyst Yang Wang is clear in his reflection: “The smartphone market will recover in terms of volumes, but the segment of economical devices will not return to previous levels.” After a decline in sales, therefore, the market will recover and return to being competitive, in terms of sales volumes, as at the beginning of 2025. But there will be a planned deviation towards mid-range, flagship and foldable smartphones. Wang then raises the alarm for low-income markets: “The lack of new affordable smartphones – he notes – could make online access more difficult for new users in low-income markets”.
Mid-range, new battlefield
High-end smartphones have always been a battleground between Big Tech, but with the drastic reduction of ‘entry level’, it is reasonable to assume that mid-range devices could open up a new battlefield. And this is because phones in this segment will increasingly offer greater memory and storage capacity, higher quality cameras and, above all, artificial intelligence features that will allow any user to stay ahead of the curve.