The last few weeks have been characterized by intense contacts between Russian and American diplomatic representatives; on the side the personal interlocution of Trump with Zelensky To make him digest what his staff is negotiating with Russia in terms of territorial sovereignty. As is now known, the causes of this conflict date back to 2010 and the responsibilities, as always happens, are not always one part; However, this article dedicated to the reconstruction of what happened but is not an analysis from an economic point of view and of the potential opportunities for Italy (and the whole of Europe) to benefit from a possible elimination of sanctions.
Russia before 2022
I attend the Russia For almost a decade (as married to Russian wife by Father Russo and Ukrainian mother), sufficient time for having had the opportunity to know the social and economic reality of a country with great potential and a market never fully exploited by western partners. I also had the possibility of being able to benefit from information from both sides of the two nations in war, or directly from Ukrainians (also of the separatist regions) and Russian and, therefore, without any political, ideological or of any kind filter.
We mean, for example, The Automotive Sector in which German cars are particularly appreciated, the Italian interior design, engineering, ditto fashion, technology Made in Italy As part of the exploitation of natural resources, wine and tricolor food, components and so below.
Russia is the richest country in terms of natural resources, consequently exports raw materials and matters almost everything; At least until before the outbreak of the conflict since, precisely because of the aggravation of the sanctions and abandonment of the country by many European and American brands, a war economy has developed which, among other things, has also favored the birth of internal companies to make up for the absence of products imported from the West.
Of all this took advantage of the Chinastrong of a privileged relationship with Russia, as well as a country’s member country to which both have contributed to founding; Much of the products first imported from the West are now signed by Chinese brands or products internally by neonate startups, especially in the technological field but also in the sector of everyday consumption assets for medium families, this as Beijing is able to offer low prices despite inflation.
Furthermore, let’s not forget the support that XI Jinping provided to Putin Constantly, starting from the import of gases and oil ban from the EU to end with the interventions in the financial field when the Rublo, at the beginning of the conflict, fell swiftly against the other currencies.
Regain the Russian market to the detriment of China, the post-conflict challenge
We all found what it cost the gas from Russia that, among other things, was also the “low -cost petrol” that allowed the EU importers, especially to Germany, to maintain minimal production costs and be competitive on all markets, ditto dickery for oil and related induced.
The tightening of the sanctions, which have not had any effect, among other things, as “sterilized” Thanks to the new outlets provided in Putin by the countries of its allieshas done nothing but further worsen the economic dynamics within the EU, moreover recently released (with difficulty) from the consequences of the pandemic.
Regardless of political, ideological or “fake penalties to show the world the claim of respect for human rights” (because the West, everything, has always had commercial and financial relationships with repressive regimes, see China, for example, and Russia itself, or exploited without any ethical African countries leaving the populations at the mercy of bloodthirsty dictators, the invasion of Libya and Iraq and so on … The reconquest of the Russian market It should be one of the targets of the EU countries.
Resuming commercial relations with Russia (China and Trump permitting) would be oxygen for the European Union industry; Reactivate the imports of gas, paying it about five times less than it currently happens, would suddenly collapse the energy prices and the aforementioned production costs, therefore “savings that could be transformed into potential profit”.
Fundamental that the EU regains authority
All this hypothetical “piano” for Return to the Russian market (by placing the hypothesis that Trump is able to stop the conflict and obtain the cancellation, or at least the softening, of the sanctions) would have reason to be if the European Union made common front becoming a reliable, reliable and authoritative interlocutor both for the USA, which, on the other hand, has been wickedly delegated everything, and for Russia herself who has all the interest in restarting the supplies of gas and oil.
At the negotiation table, for now, they sit US, China And Russia; A four -table with the empty chair that should be occupied by an authoritative EU representative and not interim from Trump, and moreover for the interposed person because the only leader who, at the moment, has established some timid negotiation with the USA is our Premier Meloni as a connection between Union and the United States.
There is at stake Industrial survival And commercial all over Europe, the alternative is to be a conquest land that will divide Trump and Xi Jinping from “good friends”.
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