The negotiation between Europe and the United States on the dutieswith the aim of avoiding a “no-deal” scenario that could lead to a transatlantic commercial war. In the next few hours, it will be presented to Donald Trump a pattern of understanding that proposes A unique tariff rate for 15 percentaccompanied by mutual exemptions to be defined. In the past few hours, the American president has confirmed that “serious negotiations are underway with Brussels, if they agree to open” their markets “to the American companies we will make them pay less rates”.
The scheme is inspired by the agreement reached between the USA and Japan and received, during a presentation to the permanent representatives of the 27 Member States, a general consent from the European Commission. Despite the initial support, however, any change will remain subject to Trump’s final approval. The core of theagreement – the single rate of 15 percent – is generally acceptable for EU member states, since it would automatically lower the duties in strategic sectors such as the automotive, currently taxed at 27.5 percent. In return, the EU would be willing to recognize some US technical standards. This rate includes the clause of the “most favored nation” (MFN), which now determines an average rate of 4.8 percent for both sides.
The sectoral exemptions I am still being discussed; Among the candidates to receive them there are aeronautics, agricultural products, alcohol, timber and medical devices. It is not yet clear whether, as in the Japanese model, the EU will include a commitment relating to industrial investments in the United States. Instead, it is confirmed that Trump does not intend to reduce the duties on the steel, stopped at 50 percent. The European Commissioner Commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, discussed the scheme with his American consideration, Howard Lutnick. The impression is that the EU capitals are willing to accept 15 percent, but are not ready to grant much more.
With the “anti-coercion tool”, the EU could impose measures such as duties, restrictions on investments and services, exclusion from public contracts or revocation of intellectual property rights, effectively configuring a commercial war with the United States. A further discussion point concerns the Big Tech and the application of the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act: the US State Department has defined these “Orwellian” regulations in relation to social media and other online platforms.
“The negotiation with the United States is still ongoing. When it was talking about duties at 15% it was one of the proposals of the Americans, dishes for everyone but the negotiation is still open” the analysis of the Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani To the microphones of “4 in Sera News”: “I also worry the value of the ratio between dollar and euro. The ratio at 1.16 is harmful. The euro is too strong compared to the dollar. I believe that it serves a strong action by the European Central Bank, cutting even more the cost of money and making an action, as it was done during Covid, for the purchase and sale of government bonds, to make an action as they say in English of quantitatives of the quantitative eases. government bonds from various countries to no longer have a coin in circulation and to make the euro less strong than the dollar “.
According to a simulation of the Confindustria Study Center, a 15 percent rate on the duties would lead to one reduction of Italian exports to the United States of 22.6 billion eurosalmost a third of the “made in Italy” sales. Part of these losses could be balanced by an export growth in other global markets, up to 10 billion euros. Overall, the most affected industrial sectors would be machinery and pharmaceuticals, while the impact would also concern sectors such as food and cars.
The simulation is based on some hypothesis: firstly, application of identical duties on the same products from the EU, with 10 percent rates for non-EU goods-scenario indicated as possible in light of recent tensions between the American administration and Canada. Secondly, it also includes a dollar devaluation of 13.5 percent compared to the euro recorded since the beginning of 2025, equal to -10 percent compared to the average of 2024. Factors that also depend on the future decisions of the central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, committed to evaluating the impact of duties on internal inflation.
According to the Confindustria Study Center, each percentage point less than duty or devaluation of the dollar translates into about a billion euros more than exports to the United States. For example, with 10 percent duties instead of 15 percent, or with a 5 percent dollar revaluation compared to the euro, the losses would be reduced to around 17.6 billion.
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