Despite the uncertainty – linked to duties and wars – which dominates every economic forecast sovereign and confuses expectations, the Italians show a surprising optimism. Yet, even the last important economic detection, that on industrial production, was negative: in May 2025 industrial production decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous month and 0.9% on an annual basis. And what is worse is the non -reversal of trend that seemed on the horizon a month ago, when Ailer’s data had interrupted the 26 consecutive months of decline in production. Instead nothing, with the risk that April remains an isolated case. Falling production means that companies program and churn out less products. For example, they worry the most marked flexions in the manufacture of means of transport (-5.6%, caught by the car), pharmaceuticals (-5.2%), chemicals (-4%).
However, as they said, surprise Italians show that they want to consume more. The numbers of the Censis-Confcommercio report released on 9 July say this, from which it emerges that “the intentions of spending for the current year are growing compared to 2024 as well as departures for summer holidays, bringing out that desire for normality, with 46.5% of optimistic Italians despite everything”. In detail, compared to 2024 the propensity to purchase by 10.9% points for household appliances increases, +9.1 technological products, +5.6 for furniture, +4.3 for cars, +3.8 for renovations. And to stay on current affairs, the share of Italian families has growing which has already planned the summer holidays: they are 37.7%, in net increase on 26.2%last year but, above all, it is the highest data since 2019, which accompanies a decrease in the number of undecided (28.6%) and those who will not start (33.6%). Such a greater propensity for consumption is mirrored into 43.3% of families who increased consumption even at the expense of savings: 51.8% of Italians have decreased their financial reserves.
Where does this ability to keep consumption from keeping up? From 2020 onwards, pandemic, inflation, wars and now the duties have invaded the daily newspaper one month after the other. But evidently there is something that guarantees a little trust. And this cannot fail to be linked to the stability of the Italian government and the internal economic dynamics, which have opposed international uncertainty. Despite the financial ricons imposed by our high public debt, which makes tax policies weak, the Italian economy shows good health. After years of loss of purchasing power, in the last 18 months real wages have increased. There is an increase in the available income and employment – even in a very differentiated area – is to the historical tops. Finally, inflation has returned under control, so that the drop in interest rates has favored private debt.
Here it is not a question of weaving the praises of this government for the economy: the problems remain and the solutions latitan.
But simply to recognize that in the face of an international situation that presents extraordinary complexities for variety and duration, the Italian economy is defending itself very well. And it is not a party position: the financial markets say it, with the spread at the minimum; And the trend of consumption tells us, the most typical meter with which to measure the trust of families.