The high temperatures related to climate change could have a devastating impact on public health in Europe by the end of the century. According to a research published on Nature Medicine From the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the extreme heat could cause up to 2.3 million additional deaths by 2099, unless significant measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The four Italian cities most at risk
The study analyzed the data of 854 European cities, highlighting that the urban areas of the Mediterranean are particularly at risk. Among these, Italy emerges as one of the most vulnerable countries: Rome, Naples, Milan and Genoa are among the ten most affected European cities. The capital, second only in Barcelona, could count almost 148,000 deaths linked to the extreme heat, followed by Naples with over 147,000 deaths, Milan with more than 110,000 and Genoa with about 36,000.
The researchers examined several emissions and adaptation scenarios. In the worst hypothesis, characterized by a high level of emissions and a poor adaptation capacity, the increase in deaths related to the heat would far exceed the decrease in winter deaths caused by the cold. This result denies the idea that global warming can have seasonal benefits. Only in northern Europe, where the number of deaths from cold could drop slightly, a less serious impact is expected, but these advantages would be compensated by the high number of victims in the rest of the continent.
“Urgent measures against climate change are needed”
“The results highlight the urgency of aggressive measures to mitigate climate change and to adapt to the increase in temperatures,” said Pierre Masselot, the main author of the study. Reduce carbon emissions could prevent up to 70% of the dead dead, but immediate and coordinated commitment is needed globally. “Especially in the Mediterranean regions, the impact could be devastating without significant interventions,” added Maslot. “Following a more sustainable path, we could save millions of lives by 2099.”
Italy, together with Spain, Greece and Portugal, is among the most exposed countries. Between 2050 and 2099, the mortality rate linked to the heat could reach 191 deaths every 100,000 inhabitants, a substantial increase compared to current levels. The urban heat islands, caused by the scarcity of green areas and by the prevalence of infrastructures that retain heat, further aggravate the phenomenon.
The study also underlines the importance of urban adaptation measures, such as the increase in green spaces, the construction of buildings designed to resist heat and sustainable urban planning. Although some European cities have already started implementing these changes, it is necessary to accelerate these interventions to face future challenges.
Antonio Gasparrini, the Italian co-author of the study, concluded: “This research clearly highlights that climate change will increase mortality in Europe, in particular in the south of the continent. It is crucial to implement policies that reduce emissions and promote climatic adaptation. Without concrete actions, the human cost will be unsustainable. “
In summary, the picture outlined by the study is alarming but not inevitable. There is still the possibility of changing direction, seem to suggest the authors of the study, as long as you start now, without wasting more time.