Tomorrow, in conjunction with Martin Luther King Day, American politics faces a crucial test. Starting from 7 am (local time), members of the Republican Party ofIowa they will vote in the primaries, and will indicate the candidate for president. For 50 years, this state that few Europeans would be able to locate on the map, about half the size of Italy and with a population of 3.5 million inhabitants, has been a fundamental test for a presidential candidate. Obama said in 2008 that winning the Iowa primary was the best night of his political career. Sandwiched between the Midwestern states, and far from the big cities visited by tourists from around the world, Iowa’s population reflects the largest portion of the American population.
Analyst Steven Shepard argues that Trump must win with more than 50%, otherwise he would see the threat of being undermined by the rival candidate during the next primaries materialize. They are competing on the other side of the field Ron De Santis And Nikki Haley, and the primaries in Iowa, followed closely by those in New Hampshire, will decide which of the two will be Trump’s real opponent within the Republican Party. De Santis visited all 99 counties of Iowa, focusing on the concept that, if Trump is the candidate, all that will be done is talk about his trials and his bluster throughout the electoral campaign, while with him, however, we will only talk of America’s future. Nikki Haley is gathering the support of crucial financiers such as the very powerful Koch family, and the polls show her overwhelmingly victorious in a hypothetical clash with Biden.
In the meantime, Trump is Trump, and the latest rallies have shown that the idea of giving himself a more presidential tone doesn’t cross his mind in the slightest. He said during the week that “big mistakes were made” during the American Civil War, and some things “could have been negotiated.” Unfortunately, Lincoln hadn’t read The art of the Deal, Trump’s bestseller which he himself defined as “the best book ever written after the Bible”, and, again according to Trump, “if Lincoln had negotiated, no one would know him now”. The angry reactions of many moderate Republicans only demonstrate their fear of suffering a right-wing “Schlein effect” in the event of Trump’s victory, with the centrist electorate abandoning the field, thus favoring Biden. This small state will therefore give an early indication of who can lead America in the coming years through a world in turmoil.