What is happening in the Middle East is more or less known to everyone. Israel He launched a series of targeted attacks against infrastructure Iranianas part of an operation called Rising Lion. The stated goal: stop the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic, which according to the Israeli authorities would represent an existential threat in perspective of a possible military use. THE’AIEA – The International Agency for Atomic Energy – has in fact approved a resolution to report the “numerous defaults” of Iran in providing complete responses on its nuclear activities. Without forgetting the document that reports “the general lack of cooperation” by Tehran, which has quite upstreams enriched to 60 percent purity in order to be able to create nine atomic bombs.
Tehran’s response was not long in coming. The Iranian counterattack has marked the beginning of an escalation which, if it is not contained, risks triggering a vast regional conflict. Diplomatic sources already speak of a possible US involvementwith Donald Trump who closely monitors the evolution of events. The spotlight on the nuclear dossier, a story that starts from distant and whose fate is all to be written.
At the center of the question there is a technical process known as enrichment of uranium. Through a system of centrifuges, the U-235 isotope is separated and concentrated, until it reaches variable percentages. For civil purposes – such as the production of electricity – a level of enrichment is sufficient between 3% and 5%. Atomic weapons, on the contrary, require a level close to 90%, highlight Geopop. The technological leap is far from trivial: it takes time, skills, infrastructures. And a logistics network that is difficult to conceal, especially under the watchful gaze of Iaea, the International Agency for Atomic Energy.
The map of Iranian nuclear plants It is well known to international observers. TO Bushehr The only civil operating power plant is located, intended for energy production. However, the most controversial plants are those of Natanz and Fordowwhere the uranium enrichment activity is concentrated. Both are built underground, at variable depths: 20-30 meters in Natanz, up to 90 in Fordow. Next to these there are other research and processing centers, including Isfahan (treatment of raw mineral) and Arak, attacked in recent days by Israeli forces. Iran also has uranium mines, distributed in different areas of the country, which guarantee the constant supply of the raw material.
But you have to go back in time. Everything revolves around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal signed in 2015, When Barack Obama was at the White House. With that pact, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities to exclusively civil purposes, in exchange for the attachment of international sanctions. Among the imposed conditions: the enrichment of uranium no more than 3.67%, the reduction of stocks and the unlimited access of the IEEA inspectors. For a few years, cooperation has worked. But in 2018, the Trump administration He decided to withdraw the United States from the agreement, reintroducing the sanctions. Tehran reacted gradually reactivating the enrichment: first to 5%, then 20%, up to – according to international sources – at values close to 60%. Today, the agency checks are more difficult. Many systems are no longer constantly monitored, and the surveillance cameras installed in the past have been removed or deactivated.
In short, having certainties is difficult. Some tests That Tehran has already developed a nuclear device there are none, as he reiterated the general manager of AIEA Rafael Grossi, remarking how – although very high levels of enrichment have been detected – there are no indications of an active and operational military program. Such reassurances also came from Tulsi Gabbard, director of the US intelligence, who last March told the Congress that Iran “is not producing atomic weapons”, and then turning out in the past few hours: but one thing appears clear: the technical capacity is approaching the critical threshold and the danger is palpable. 60% enrichment represents an intermediate step, and the margin to go to 90% – theoretically – is not wide. However, building a nuclear weapon requires much more: advanced components, miniaturization, tests.
The attacks conducted in recent weeks by Israel, in particular in Natanz, they had a significant impact. The surface infrastructures – including the electrical network – were destroyed, putting the centrifuges out of use. Different situation in Fordow, where the damage would be more limited, also thanks to the greater depth of the plants. According to military sources, only high penetration devices, such as those released by the American B-52 bombers, would be able to effectively affect those structures. The Iranian nuclear program therefore remains under observation, but the military escalation opens scenarios of strong instability.
Khamenei can count on the support of Vladimir Putin. For the Russian president, Iran has the right to develop nuclear programs for civil purposes. In an interview with Sky News Arabia, the Tsar has criticized Israeli military intervention: “Iran has every right to pursue nuclear technology programs for peaceful purposes”. Russia is ready to provide “assistance and support” to the development of civil nuclear energy, as happened in the past. But not only. Putin recalled the EIEA assessments, according to which there is no concrete tests that Iran is trying to build a nuclear arsenal. “Tehran has repeatedly declared that he had no intention of developing atomic weapons, and the agency does not have elements that demonstrate the opposite,” said the Russian president. In support of the Iranian position, the Kremlin leader also recalled the existence of a fatwa that explicitly prohibits possession and use of nuclear weapons. A stance that, according to Moscow, strengthens the idea that Tehran’s program remains confined in the civil sphere and has no military purposes.
Franco Lodige, June 21st
TheVermilion.com is also on WhatsApp. Simply click here to register for the channel and always be updated (free).
The Iran article, 60% uranium and nuclear farce: all the truth about the bomb comes from Nicolaportro.it.