The prices had not taken a good thing for anything. Both because it is difficult to calculate the concrete effects of the new rates and because the markets think of belly and the markets collapsed on Friday of such a measure that will go down to the story.
Just as my article will go to history in which I said that the prices had taken for granted everything.
And on Friday I decided to write on Sunday at dawn to stop bocce.
Moreover, Oscar Wilde said that the newspapers are a mouth always open for which it is impossible not to say sometimes stupid and therefore I am in good company.
It is impossible not to lose money in these situations even if the common bad is not half a Gaudio.
You don’t have to make a fault but a reason. The rebound, the statistics tells us, is around the corner and therefore we must hold on. Dow Jones and Russell 2000 is true that they entered the Bear Market area but the SP500 still resists on horseback and in the Cesarini area could with a shock of kidney return. The test is that the narrative in the American financial media is changing and on Wall Street Journal and Marketwatch, positive articles begin to appear. Here are the positive ideas that appeared in several articles:
1) The Vix reached 40level that is very high
2) A statistics from the American Association of Individual Investors He has shown that in a survey the answers have not been so pessimistic since March 2009.
3) 75% of the ASP500 shares They are price under the 200 -day mobile average, and this was the level reached in October 2022. Indeed then the level reached 83%.
4) Last Friday employment data they were so positive that they were a multiple of expectations: the US economy still enjoys excellent form
5) Sell in May and Go Away But summer 2024 was positive for investors
And finally the reason for the reasons is that Mark Hulbert, the well -known quantitative marketwatch analyst, has become positive. The Hulbert Stock Newsletter sentiment Index or HSnsnsi has fallen so low that it is in 10 % lower than the historical range from 2000 to today. The current situation recalls that of October 2023: in the following 3 months the SP500 was 19%up.
Although we must remember that sentiment is something that works in the short and certainly not in the long run, in which we are all of course in the hands of the god of the markets.
The problem is that even if you are positive at 12 months you cannot be with certainty at 12 days: here a post on Truth by Ronald Trump is enough and the cards run at the speed of light. The only certain thing is volatility. I think it is the uncertainty of the behavior of Trump who brings down the markets more than the duties. But it’s just my opinion.
Now we come to the technical analysis: The levels indicated yesterday on the SP500 were broken as peanuts by the crushing of sales. So much so that we even came to pierce the bullish trendline, which would be devastating because we should do a bearish projection to 4,000 nose which frankly to memento I think unlikely. In other words we would beat the minimum of November 2023massacro.
Even the Nasdaq Futures and composite index have perforated to the upward trendline and therefore the goal to 16,000 becomes possible. In a situation like this usually the thickest forecasts to be made tomorrow are the less improbable ones because the unlikely has already happened. O other possibility these hypotheses will materialize tomorrow since above all for the Nasdaq we are there: just a shoulder strap and not a shoulder to arrive on the goal of 16,000.
Same situation on the FTSE MIB 40 that has affected the bullish trendline: in case of breaking, we would end up at 25,000 which for the moment I don’t even see it possible. Easier to focus on a rebound starting next week.
Conclusion: Ending Monday when there is the final part of the collapse (remember the famous 1-2-3 rule) could be the worst decision because the rebound should come after. After all, don’t you always bounce on the trendline?
Let’s wait for a demanding Monday, for the astral conjunction for which the crises always take place on Friday and Monday.
Then from Tuesday we could see the light.
As long as we remain on, we don’t know, but it should remain on for a while.
If we do not see the light shortly and we will enter the Bear Market we will have to go to calculate all the price goals again.
But let’s try his head after hearing it.
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