The inaugural launch of the New Glenn, although it represents a historic event, highlights a disastrous aspect: the alternative to Elon Musk, in the private space industry, is today embodied by another American tycoon, Jeff Bezos. If the figure of Musk raises questions in certain circles due to his closeness to the new American president Trump, Bezos’ leadership is certainly not free from concerns for the sole fact that – at least in terms of perception – he is more politically distant from the new tenant of the White House.
The challenge between SpaceX and Blue Origin
The reality is that the private sector has now overtaken the public sector in this area. National and supranational institutions, while recognizing the strategic nature of access to space, find themselves forced to play catch-up. NASA itself, emblem of US technological primacy, has opted for collaborations with companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin to keep pace, delegating tasks to them that in the past would have been managed internally.
Congratulations on reaching orbit on the first attempt! @JeffBezos https://t.co/EJl6L8aevV
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 16, 2025
This dynamic poses a strategic problem: is relying on private individuals an obligatory choice or a surrender? The de facto monopoly exercised by a few private actors, each with personal visions and business priorities, leaves states and international institutions in a position of relative weakness. If Blue Origin may appear, at least on paper, more distant from obvious geopolitical risks than SpaceX, it is not immune to the same questions: who really controls the strategic choices when the infrastructures critical for the security and connectivity of a country (therefore also for various other sectors, because today everything passes through connectivity) are in the hands of private companies?
Then there is the speed of technological development. Public institutions, constrained by bureaucracies, budgets and slow decision-making processes, cannot compete with the pace of development of the private sector, which invests enormous capital to accelerate research and development. On the other hand, their possible catch-up would require massive investments and a drastic cut in procedures, in an increasingly fragmented international context.
The new space race
The risk is not only economic or technological, but also geopolitical: dependence on a small number of private suppliers could expose countries to implicit or explicit blackmail. The ability to control satellite connections, communications and access to space gives these companies power that transcends the boundaries of commercial competition. It is a strategic power, which can impact vital sectors such as defense, security and the global economy. In other words, it is enormous political power.
Ultimately, the launch of New Glenn is not just a technological challenge between SpaceX and Blue Origin, but yet another sign of a world in which the potential of satellite connections and access to space is increasingly in the hands of private individuals. States and especially Europe, if they do not want to remain helpless spectators of this race, will have to drastically accelerate the development of public or semi-public projects, imagining new forms of collaboration with the private sector that do not compromise its technological and political sovereignty.
The space race, therefore, is no longer just a race between nations (as it was during the Cold War), but a game in which the private world dictates the rules and governments try to adapt. A challenge that will determine not only the future of space exploration, but also the balance of power of the 21st century. And therefore it is good to take care of.