Spotlights on Middle Eastit couldn’t be otherwise. After the expected white smoke for the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the military conflict within the Syria. After conquering AleppoTurkey-backed Syrian Islamist factions took control of the international airport, advancing into northern Hama province in north-central Syria. The Islamist Hayat Tahrir al Sham alliance – made up of the former Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda – and other pro-Turkish factions managed to take control of the airport after the Kurdish forces, allied with Damascus, withdrew from the rearguard position assumed after the redeployment of the Syrian army.
Developments in Aleppo – already tormented by civil war for a long time – must be monitored with the utmost attention. Thanks to the commitment of the Shiite militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards against Tel Avivthe pro-Turkish jihadist forces had the opportunity to regroup and land the blow. The factions, in fact, also took control of the strategic city of Khan Shayjun, in the south of the nearby province of Idlib and on the border with that of Hama, in the hands of the government of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. It was not a complicated operation: the Syrian army opted for a rapid withdrawal, leaving the field open to Islamist groups. Russia does not stand idly by. Moscow’s fighter-bombers have carried out raids against the western outskirts of Aleppo and several points in Idlib province, but the chessboard is particularly intricate at this stage. The toll is 16 victims, but the advance of the rebels does not stop, on the contrary.
According to what is filtered, Turkey is working to re-establish relations with Damascus, but Assad is calling for the withdrawal of Erdogan’s troops from northern Syria and a stop to support for opposition groups. At the moment the Astana peace process it wobbles a lot. The agreement dating back to 2017, in the aftermath of the heavy bombings with which Russian President Vladimir Putin had put Aleppo back in the hands of Assad, counts on the participation of Russia itself, Turkey and Iran which set themselves the objective of finding a political solution to the war in Syria. An authoritarian imposition to manage the country and negotiate the transition, an attempt that was not fully successful: Ankara continued to have its own military presence in the north of the country, just as Russia and Iran have maintained a constant presence alongside Assad. Stability has been achieved, but with a heavy hand.
There Türkiye is involved in the foreground. Erdogan has set himself the goal of containing the Kurdish-Syrian organization YPG, preventing it from creating a Kurdish state on its border, but not only that: the Turkish government wants to avoid flows of refugees that could undermine the president’s consensus. With the repercussions of the case on Europe, which could find itself dealing with yet another invasion of asylum seekers. According to experts, Fly And Tehran they cannot stand by and watch: the two countries have always supported Assad, consolidating his position in power so as to avoid his overthrow.
How far can the rebels go? Giving an answer to this question is impossible at the moment. Being a heterogeneous group, the priority is to maintain cohesion. Unlike the last major conflict, however, Russian forces are engaged in Ukraine. Woe betide you if you underestimate the situation Damascus. Yesterday evening there were rumors of clashes between rival government factions, led respectively by pro-Iranian and other pro-Russian elements. Media websites and government institutions are blocked and rumors about an alleged coup against Bashar al Assad, who according to some newspapers has fled to Moscow, have not ceased. To be precise, there is talk of gunshots near the presidential palace, at the Four Seasons. “I will defeat the terrorists” is the Raìs’ declaration, but in the event of the fall of Damascus the story would take on very different contours.
The scenarios could change in case of acceleration on the diplomatic frontunlikely at the moment. While the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Russia, Hakan Fidan and Sergei Lavrov, agreed that developments in Syria are “dangerous”, it is impossible to clarify how well the two governments can manage the crisis. The head of Iranian diplomacy Abbas Araghchi will be in Syria for talks and then will fly to Türkiye to meet Ankara’s interlocutors. The good news is about the Italians300 in Syria of which 120 in Aleppo. “There is no danger for our compatriots. The rebels have assured that there will be no hostile actions against Italians, Christians and civilians,” explained Minister Antonio Tajani, confirming that today a UN convoy will leave from Aleppo towards Damascus, on which there will be some compatriots.
Franco Lodige, 1 December 2024
TheVermilion.com is also on Whatsapp. Simply click here to subscribe to the channel and always be updated (free)
The article Should we worry about Aleppo? comes from Nicola Porro.