If there was a geopolitical demonstration of the saying “falling from the frying pan into the fire”, the Syrian chaos would fit perfectly. Yesterday Damascus fell, Bashar al Assad he fled to Russia where he received political asylum, the jihadist rebels of the movement Tahrir al-Sham (Hts) led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani they took the city and the Syrian territory slipped into uncertainty. It all happened so quickly that perhaps not even the big Middle Eastern players, the USA, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Israel, were prepared for the dissolution of the old regime like butter. Everyone else, Europe in the lead, doesn’t know how to react: they are happy for the end of the dictator, but they remember Libya’s lesson with horror and are therefore pissing themselves off.
The terrorist leading Syria
The alarm in the USA
It is therefore no coincidence that from last night’s speech Joe Biden all the apprehension about a decidedly uncertain future transpires. The outgoing president rejoiced at the end of the Assad regime, exalted the “historic opportunity for the Syrian people” but also recognized that this is a moment of “great uncertainty”. And in the Middle East uncertainty often rhymes with chaos. US bases are ready to activate should the rebels threaten allies in the region, such as Israel or Jordan: yesterday alone, dozens of air strikes were carried out against 75 targets in Syria to prevent the Islamic State from taking advantage of the situation and attempting to reconstitute itself. Not that the winners are better: the ISIS militiamen do not look kindly on the HTS ones, considering them traitors and too moderateyet Biden and Washington are “aware of the terrorist roots of the rebels” (the group was born from an offshoot of Al Qaeda) who “are currently saying the right things” but it is not certain that they will be able to slow down the jihadist ardors for long.
“An Islamic victory”
Jolani himself made this clear in his speech at the great mosque. Yesterday, he said, was a “victory of the great Islamic nation” which will mark a turning point not only for Syria but for “the entire region” which “is purified by the grace of Almighty God and through the efforts of the heroic Mujahideen ”. Not exactly the phrases that Westerners dreamed of hearing, not to mention that the opening of the prisons in Damascus, Homs and Aleppo have freed numerous jihadists ready to join the Islamic cause. Be it HTS or ISIS.
Defeated and winners
Certainly the advance of the rebels has divided the Middle Eastern actors into losers and winners. They can rub their hands, no doubt, there Türkiye Of Erdogan and theUkraine Of Zelensky but for decidedly different reasons. The sultan has always been an explicit supporter of the rebels, the only one in NATO, and the fall of Assad will allow him to get his hands on Syria, to send almost 3 million refugees and to deal with the problems of the Kurds who control a piece of Syrian territory. The only real risk for Ankara is the rebirth of the Islamic State, and it is not certain that Jolani will allow himself to be influenced by Turkish diktats.
Kiev for its part, it receives the “defeat” of the Russia Of Putinalways a great ally of the Assad regime and now very worried about the air bases present in the area. Moscow has made it known that the rebels have provided “guarantees” on the military zones in the hands of the Kremlin, but in certain contexts words are often worth little. Facts count. And for now the facts remain a great mystery.
A question mark that also concerns Israel. Of course: yesterday Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Assad’s escape with joy and claimed the end of the “axis of evil” as a direct consequence of the wars (Lebanon, Iran, Gaza) that Tel Aviv is fighting against Hezbollah, Hamas and against the Ayatollahs “main supporters of Assad regime”. Small problem: “This creates new opportunities for Israel but not without risks.” Coexistence with the Assads, after the Yom Kippur War, was frowned upon but considered necessary. The arrival of the Iranians after the first rebel uprising has complicated the situation, and in recent years Tel Aviv has often bombed targets in Syria, but the unknown is perhaps more frightening than the known. The birth of a “great Islamic nation” on its borders would obviously be a nightmare, so much so that Israeli troops immediately occupied the buffer zone on Golan considering the pact signed in 1974 to have “failed”. The IDF has taken control of the military base on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon: “It is a temporary defensive position – Netanyahu said – until an agreement is found adequate.”
Europe’s fears
And Europe? He gasps, doesn’t know which side to take and in some cases shows unjustified enthusiasm. Ursula von der Leyen he rejoices at the fall of the “cruel dictatorship”, speaks of “historic change” but warns of the “risks”. It does the same Roberta Metsolapresident of the European Parliament, convinced that “what happens in the next few hours and days is important”, which means everything and nothing. The hope is that a “free, stable and safe future” will open up but the truth is that no one can guarantee it at the moment. Much less can the EU ensure “respect for fundamental rights and international law”. This is why the words of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Policy are incomprehensible, Kaja Kallasconvinced that the rebels’ victory is a “positive and long overdue development”.
The memory of the death of Gaddafi it’s still fresh. In 2011, European leaders rejoiced at the death of the Libyan dictator and were convinced that the “Arab Spring” would bring democracy and prosperity. But it was a false hope: do you remember the jihadist commando who murdered the US ambassador in Benghazi a few months later? And the civil war? In the end, reality beat fantasy and even today, almost 15 years later, Libya remains a large powder keg where terrorism, chaos and above all human traffickers thrive. There Germany knows well what instability means in Syria, given that ten years ago it found itself having to welcome millions of refugees with all the consequences of the case (see growth of the AfD). There are those who today hypothesize that the new Syrian developments could produce another 1.5 million migrants.
Even the Grand Brittanyusually not inclined to compromise, proves to be a wait-and-see. The British Keir Starmer welcomes Assad’s departure and hopes for peace and stability for Syria, but cannot guarantee that it will happen: “Our attention is now turned to ensuring the prevalence of a political solution and the restoration of peace and stability ”. But the truth is that everyone’s great fear is that they have fallen from the ugly but well-known frying pan into the fire. Which remains a great unknown. Islamist.