It is the site where reality becomes a bet. On Polymarket you can bet on anything: it is the platform itself that defines itself as “the largest predictive market in the world”, and some bets have made a lot of noise in recent months, especially those linked to wars or bizarre decisions by Donald Trump, with the suspicion of “tip-offs”, or even due to their singularity: “crazy” predictions are multiplying. The volumes of money moved around absurd questions are notable and the bets are also increasing in Italy. For this reason, many wonder how legal it is to monetize in this way in our country.
Polymarket and the war: betting goes crazy with Trump
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, but also due to the blitz in Venezuela, we have seen suspicious movements on the financial markets. The most dubious episodes often occur before some declarations by Donald Trump which then have clear effects on the markets: the bets are in the millions, as are the associated earnings. Like on April 9, 2025, when he announced a 90-day pause on trade tariffs, which caused a historic surge in the S&p 500 index, up 9.5% in a single day. A few minutes earlier, some traders had invested over 2 million dollars and obtained around 20 million.
An analysis of BBC it cross-referenced the trading volumes on various markets with some of the most relevant statements by the US president. From the data emerges the recurring pattern of episodes with a “suspicious” timing compared to social posts or statements by Trump. But suspicions also concern prediction platforms such as Polymarket.
In early January 2026, a user who had bet around $32,500 on the fall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro won over $436,000 after the latter was arrested the following day. Similarly, six accounts created in February 2026 had bet on a US attack on Iran by February 28, grossing a combined $1.2 million after official confirmation.
What Polymarket is in practice and how to bet
Polymarket is not a betting agency, but, essentially, a “prediction market”, that is, a platform where users buy and sell odds linked to the probability of an event happening. There are thousands of active markets across various sectors such as politics, sports, finance, crypto, culture, weather and geopolitics. In practice, contracts are made based on “yes” or “no”.
But let’s see an example of how to bet. On the market you buy “yes” or “no” odds and the price reflects the probability that a given event will happen. If “yes” is worth $0.37, you can buy the shares at this price. Therefore, by purchasing 100 shares the initial cost will be 37 dollars. If the expected condition is fulfilled on the “expiry” date of the event, each bet amount is paid 1 dollar: you will therefore collect 100 dollars in total, with a net profit of 65 dollars, given the 35 spent initially. In the event of a negative outcome, the 100 “yes” shares become worthless and the 35 dollars invested are lost.
But the shares bought at 0.35, a few days later, can also rise in price based on the bets, as if they were on the financial markets. If necessary, you can sell and cash in.
Who’s behind it: Trump Jr.’s “patriotic” funds.
Shayne Coplan founded the platform in 2020 and in the last year it has attracted significant capital: Reuters wrote that in the first half of 2025 it had already recorded 6 billion dollars in trades, while between March and April there was a collection of almost a billion dollars, for a general valuation of Polymarket estimated at around 15 billion.
Among the main financiers is the “1789 Capital” fund, in which Donald Trump Jr., son of the US president, is among the members. The motto reported on the official website is “funding the next chapter of American uniqueness”, with targeted investments in companies aligned with conservative values.
From the return of Jesus to the weather through The craziest bets
On Polymarket you can potentially bet on anything. And bettors are willing to do anything to win. The latest case comes from France, where Meteo France, which manages the national meteorological network, filed a complaint after anomalies in temperature data in sensors at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris. Some bets on Polymarket were involved: someone apparently altered the sensor readings, transforming a 30 dollar bet into almost 14,000 dollars in winnings thanks to an anomalous temperature peak of about 6 degrees higher than normal. There are those who hypothesize the use of a hairdryer.
Everything has been bet on Polymarket. Will Jesus Christ Return to Earth by 2027? 4 percent of bettors bet yes and at the moment the bets are close to 58 million dollars. “Will the US announce the existence of aliens by 2027?” or even “Will ChatGpt become a gray slime that swallows the planet?”.
For each question there are rules that establish the actual realization of a given event. For example, the return of Jesus applies if the “second coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm”. The return will be established by the “consensus” of unspecified “reliable sources”. For aliens to exist, “the President of the United States, a Cabinet member, a staff member, or a federal agency must definitively declare the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 p.m.”
There are predictions about sports, about other children of Elon Musk, about natural disasters or nuclear weapons exploding. Italy is not excluded. “Meloni resigns as prime minister by June 30, 2026”, on which there are currently total bets of 45 thousand dollars. There is no shortage of those on the Pope, just as there could be no shortage of bets on the outcome of the referendum.
Is betting on Polymarket in Italy legal?
Polymarket itself explains that Italy is one of the countries with restrictions. From our country it is possible to monitor the markets and related data but you cannot bet. The page also adds that Polymarket expressly prohibits the use of VPNs or similar tools to bypass geo-blocking and specifies that permissions depend on the user’s physical location, not their residence.
For a similar activity, a specific license issued by the Customs and Monopolies Agency would be needed, which Polymarket does not have. Even if someone managed to connect with a VPN – thus simulating browsing the site from another country – it would be difficult to collect and without the appropriate taxation – capital from abroad – illegal.