Is it possible to predict the arrival of a particularly hot summer in advance? Yes, at least according to the results of a study by the National Oceanic Center in Southampton, just published in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics. According to English scientists, in fact, the increase in fresh water released into the North Atlantic by the melting of the Arctic ice is capable of triggering a cascade of climatic events that determine the arrival of a hot and dry summer season on the continent European.
The study takes steps from the results of previous research, which had suggested a statistical connection between the amount of ice melting in the more northern latitudes, and summer temperatures in Southern Europe. The mechanism that links the two phenomena, however, remained unclear. And for this, the researchers used a large observational data set to analyze the effects of melting Arctic ice on climate processes involving the North Atlantic and the European continent.
Their analyzes reveal that anomalies in ice melting (i.e. periods in which more ice melts than normal) produce a chain reaction, which involves the North Atlantic Current (an ocean current of warm water fed by the Gulf Stream) and influences the circulation of winds in the troposphere, causing conditions associated with hot and dry summers on the European continent, particularly in the southernmost regions. The association between the two phenomena is so robust that, according to the researchers, it is possible to predict the temperatures that will arrive in summer, based on measurements of the amount of ice that melted in the Arctic the previous year.
In the future, therefore, global warming is destined not only to increase European temperatures, but also to melt increasingly greater quantities of ice in the northernmost areas, thus contributing to making European summers even hotter. This year too, however, the researchers’ forecasts do not bring good news. “Although the UK and Northern Europe experienced an unusually cold and wet summer in 2023, temperatures in Greenland were above average, and this increased freshwater inputs into the North Atlantic,” he explains Marilena Oltmanns, one of the authors of the study. “Based on the chain of events we have identified, we expect that atmospheric and oceanic conditions will be favorable this year as a particularly hot and dry summer arrives in southern Europe.”