Appeared for the first time in December, the YR4 asteroid worries NASA which in the last few days has updated the bulletin on the chances of the probability that it can hit the earth in 2032. The impact possibilities have gone from 1.2 to 2, 3 percent: about 1 out of 43
The size of YR4 and the possible areas of the impact
The diameter of YR4 is currently estimated between 40 and 90 meters. So far, in fact, it has been possible to study the asteroid only through the light that reflects from the sun, but the data of the new telescope could provide more precise information. The first cycle of observation with the Webb telescope will begin in March, when YR4 will be at the top of its brightness. A second phase is scheduled for May 2025, with the aim of allowing the final measurements of the orbit before the celestial body definitively disappeared from our sight until 2028.
In any case, the size of YR4 would not be enough to generate a global catastrophe: however destructive, any damage would be recorded on a local scale. In this regard, the experts have calculated the possible areas affected by the impact.
The areas that fall within the so -called “risk corridor” are indicated in an IAWN (International Asteroid Warning Networl) document, chaired by NASA. According to estimates, the areas most at risk of impact include the Eastern Pacific Ocean, the northern part of South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabic Sea and the Southern Asia.
“Significant situation”: the UN plan
Although “the possibility of impact is very reduced and the rather small asteroid, so much so that the effects of a potential impact would be on a local scale”, the European space agency underlines that “the situation is significant enough to justify the attention of the community global planetary defense “.
Not surprisingly, the aforementioned IAWN and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) were commissioned by the UN of constantly monitoring the asteroid in the coming years in order to develop a strategy to analyze the consequences of possible impacts in the various areas of the world and assist governments in implementing the prevention and mitigation of damages.
