Donald Trump promised a rapid drop in the price of diesel thanks to the agreement reached with Vladimir Putin, but how much do the Russian supplies released really weigh on the international market? Moscow promises 4.8 million tons of diesel, while in Italy diesel remains at over 2.25 euros per liter. In the meantime, the first concrete confirmation regarding the sanctions plan has arrived: the US Treasury Department has temporarily authorized commercial operations on Russian diesel, with a license valid until 7 April 2027. But it does not mean that all the announced supplies are already available.
How much are the 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel oil really worth?
The agreement announced by Trump provides for an initial immediate supply of over 300 thousand tons, another 500 thousand in November and one million subsequently. A further three million tonnes are added, which the American president has subordinated to the operational capacity of Russian refineries. The total therefore exceeds 4.8 million tonnes, but the quantities that should be placed on the market immediately represent just 6% of the entire package announced.
To understand the scope of the operation we need to compare these numbers with international needs. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), diesel and other products in the diesel/gasoil category represent almost 30% of global oil demand, equal to approximately 30 million barrels per day.
Applying the IEA conversion coefficient, the 4.8 million tonnes promised by Moscow correspond to approximately 35.8 million barrels: just over a day of global demand. The first tranche of 300 thousand tons is equivalent to approximately 2.2 million barrels, less than two hours of global consumption.
Because the price of diesel may not drop much
The market difficulties do not depend only on the availability of crude oil. One of the main problems concerns the ability to transform it into diesel in refineries, affected by the consequences of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
In its September report, the International Energy Agency found that net exports of diesel and gas oil from Gulf countries and Russia had fallen by a combined 1.6 million barrels per day compared to February. The mere 300 thousand tons promised immediately by Moscow therefore correspond to approximately one and a half days of that reduction in flows.
The situation explains why the energy experts interviewed byAssociated Press have expressed skepticism about the possibility of a significant reduction in prices. Clayton Seigle, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the announced supplies should not be sufficient to significantly lower the cost of diesel in the United States or Europe.
Another question concerns the destination of the fuel. If Russian quantities replaced supplies already directed to other markets, the effect on global supply would be different from that produced by truly additional availability.
The first effect on the financial markets, however, has been seen: second Reutersafter Trump’s announcement, American diesel futures lost almost 5%.
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Comparison with national consumption helps to understand the size of Russian supplies. According to the 2026 annual report of the Energy Union for Mobility, drawn up on data from the Ministry of the Environment, approximately 23.3 million tonnes of automotive diesel were consumed in Italy in 2025.
The entire package announced by Trump therefore corresponds to approximately 21% of Italian consumption for a year, i.e. approximately 75 days of national needs. The first tranche of 300 thousand tons is equivalent to less than five days.
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The supplies are not destined for Italy, but for the American and international markets, and they would not all arrive at the same time. Furthermore, European Union countries maintain their sanctions on imports of petroleum products of Russian origin. The suspension of US restrictions does not automatically authorize the entry of Russian diesel into the Italian market.
The possible benefit for Italy will therefore depend on the trend in international prices of refined products, not on a direct arrival of the tons promised by Moscow. The supply from other producers and the difficulties of maritime transport also affect these prices.
Zelensky against Trump: “A gift to Putin, he will use the money to continue the war”
The diesel agreement has provoked a reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who accuses Donald Trump of favoring Russia just as new negotiations to end the war are underway. According to the Kiev leader, the suspension of American sanctions will allow Moscow to obtain new economic revenues to use to finance the conflict.
“Any easing of sanctions against Russia, in the absence of a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement, represents an obvious weakness,” Zelensky wrote on
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In a telephone interview with AxiosZelensky took it further, calling the agreement “unfair and dishonest” and comparing it to a birthday present for Putin, who turned 74 on October 7. The Ukrainian president also disputed the timing of the agreement: Trump spoke with Putin while the American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting a Ukrainian delegation and European representatives in Miami to discuss the end of the conflict.
“I believe that our team was simply used as a front,” said Zelensky, denouncing the lack of transparency in relations with Washington.
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The Ukrainian leader, however, made it clear that he is not absolutely against a possible easing of sanctions, provided that it is accompanied by concrete commitments from Russia. Kiev has said it is willing to stop attacks on Russian refineries if Moscow stops bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. A mutual de-escalation proposal which, according to Zelensky, had already been presented to the American negotiators.
According to what was reported to Axios from a US official, Trump would instead have decided to reach the agreement with Putin after Zelensky had ignored repeated American requests to unilaterally suspend the attacks against Russian refineries, considered by Washington to be one of the causes of the increase in energy prices.