A real opening or a bluff? A possible way out or a way to mock Volodymyr Zelensky? Yesterday was significant for the dossier Ukraine: Vladimir Putin has in fact opened to a cease-fire. Officializing the overall commitment of 700 thousand soldiers in what he once again renamed “special operation”, the Tsar suggested dialogue in Kiev by placing two conditions: the regions occupied by Russian troops (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) must be considered as part of Russia and above all the stop to Kiev's entry into NATO.
Putin's peace proposal, decidedly more convenient for Moscow than for Kiev, was not welcomed by Kiev. Zelensky didn't even take it into consideration, speaking of an ultimatum he had already heard and “words from Hitler”. The Ukrainian leader is not entirely wrong, in fact it is not the first time that the Russian president has publicly feared the possibility of reaching peace. But he always has room to reach a negotiated solution unacceptable bases for Ukraine, starting from the renunciation of the territories. Imagine giving up membership in NATO after having fought for a long time and having overcome obstacles once considered insurmountable.
Putin's new offer has reignited the debate among analysts and experts. The Institute for the study of war (ISW) highlighted that the Kremlin's proposal cannot be considered credible due to several factors. In other words, it is a mere bluff, yet another one after two years and four months of war. As explained by the American think tank, the ceasefire would not prevent Moscow from resuming the offensive to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state. Just think of the number of violations of international commitments between the intervention in Crimea and the one in Donbass in 2014. But not only that. With this proposal, Putin could aim to prepare more reliable armed forces to conduct a series of offensive operations aimed at subverting the Kiev government, achieving the demilitarization of the country and, ultimately, conquering it. In a nutshell, not to be trusted.
But there's more. Putin's pseudo-proposal arrived on the day of the message sent by G7 of Borgo Egnazia. “We reaffirm our firm support for Ukraine for as long as necessary,” the leaders write in the final statement, underlining that Moscow must “end its illegal war of aggression” and also “pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.” which “according to the World Bank now exceeds 486 billion dollars”. On the table are 50 billion dollars deriving from immobilized Russian sovereign assets. In addition, support for Zelensky's peace formula and the peace summit scheduled in Switzerland “to build a framework based on international law, on the United Nations Charter and its principles, respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the 'Ukraine”. A clear, clear, clear position. And Putin's message was not long in coming: the Kremlin reiterated that it is a “real peace proposal” prepared “on the basis of the current situation”. No immediate progress, the situation on the field remains the same.
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