What language will the next human being who sets foot on the Moon speak? For now, the challenge is open: on paper the Americans would have the advantage, not only because they are the only ones who have already been there, but also because their Artemis program envisages the first manned mission in 2027, while the Chinese plans for landing of the first astronauts will not take place before 2030. The NASA mission, initially scheduled for last year, however continues to suffer delays. While that of the dragon continues in tight stages, and for now it does not move back a millimeter compared to the official calendar. Many are therefore wondering whether the efficiency and patience of the Chinese space agency are destined, this time, to prevail over the hubris of the Americans. And thus to hand over to the Eastern superpower supremacy over what will probably be the new frontier of the human species.
The American program
The Artemis project was born in 2017 at the behest of the first Trump administration, with the aim of restoring luster to the American space program with the symbolic return of man to the Moon, and at the same time moving the human presence in space into lunar orbit, to give following what has been done to date on the international space station, which after almost thirty years of honored career is now destined to close its doors in the next few years.
Initially the program was to exploit the new Lunar Gateway, the space base that will be built in lunar orbit, as a base camp for the lander that will bring the next astronauts to the satellite’s soil. However, the project has undergone several changes over the years, and a multitude of delays. The construction of the Lunar Gateway has not yet begun, and the current plan is to land a first crew on board a Starship rocket taken off from Earth, to proceed only after the construction of the new orbital station. The crewed mission, initially set for 2024, was thus postponed until at least 2027, also due to problems with the development of the new space suits that astronauts will wear, and those experienced by SpaceX in the development of its Starship rocket.
The next steps
The American attack on the Moon will proceed in three stages. The first, already achieved in 2022, was the Artemis 1 mission, which successfully tested the Orion capsule on an uncrewed trip around the Moon. The next step, Artemis 2, was scheduled for this year, but has already been postponed to April 2026, and will consist of a trip along the same route as Artemis 1, but with a team of four astronauts on board, to verify that everything is ready before attempting the fateful moon landing.
If the test results are positive, it will then be the turn of Artemis 3, whose crew will bring the Americans back to the lunar soil (for the ESA astronauts, part of the program, there will only be space on the following trips). However, several details of the mission have yet to be clarified, and to many experts the 2027 launch date seems increasingly utopian (an assessment by the American space agency itself in 2023 estimated that there would be more than a 30 percent chance that Artemis 3 will not launch by 2028). Later, but with a date to be defined, work should also begin on the construction of a lunar habitat, a base that will be able to host astronauts for long periods on the surface, and where scientific and exploratory research can be carried out. In the meantime, as we were saying, the Chinese lunar program, although more cautious regarding dates, continues to achieve one success after another.
Chang’e
The Chinese lunar program, renamed the Chang’e project, was launched in 2007, but it was only in 2018 that it really got underway, with the landing of the first lander on the satellite. In 2020, Chang’e 5 collected and brought back nearly two kilos of lunar soil samples. Last year, Chang’e 6 replicated the feat, with over eight kilos of material collected, for the first time in history, on the far side of the Moon.
Chang’e 7 is therefore expected in the coming years, which will deeply explore the south pole of the moon and the resources present, in view of future missions. Following this, Chang’e 8 should launch in 2028, which will bring a lander, a rover, and also a humanoid robot to the lunar south pole. And therefore, by 2030, the time should come for the first manned mission, in which Chinese astronauts will set foot on the surface of the Moon for the first time. If by then NASA has continued to postpone Artemis 3, the challenge will be lost.
The ambition of the eastern rivals, however, is not so much to be the first to step onto the lunar soil again, but to build a stable presence on the surface of the satellite: a lunar base, which will be built in collaboration with the Russian space agency (which has now completely withdrawn from the NASA Gateway project). The program has recently accelerated, and envisages a first settlement near the lunar south pole ready by 2035, and then a network of outposts along the equator and on the far side of the satellite, coordinated from a base in orbit, to be achieved by 2050. The objective, the Chinese have revealed, is to explore the Moon and study its exploitation possibilities, but also, and above all, to gain experience in view of the logical next step: human exploration of Mars. Another objective that will probably see them pitted against NASA (and hopefully ESA) in a race for supremacy.