The negotiations between the United States and Iran to end the war are entering their most delicate phase, but there is still no agreement. The latest news indicates that Washington, Tehran and Pakistan – the main mediator – recognize progress in negotiations to stop almost three months of war. Second Reutersthe diplomatic work concerns a memorandum of understanding that is currently being defined and which should proceed in three steps: formal closure of the war, resolution of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and opening of a 30-day negotiation window for a broader agreement. For Donald Trump it’s “deal or attack, it’s 50/50”, with a decision expected soon. The truce could be extended by two months.
Agreement close, but not signed
The agreement does not seem complete. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that “there has been some progress”, but reiterated the conditions: Iran must not have a nuclear weapon, the Strait must remain open “without tolls” and Tehran must hand over the enriched uranium. On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei spoke of “reducing differences”, but added that issues remain to be discussed through mediators.
Mediation passes mainly through Islamabad. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and negotiator Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf in Tehran. Second Associated Presstwo regional officials and a diplomat said the United States and Iran were close to a memorandum of understanding to end the war, but the text has yet to be approved by the parties.
End of war and nuclear power: the hypotheses of the agreement
The negotiation has at least two floors. The first is military: stop the war, avoid new American raids and stabilize the front connected to Lebanon. The second is strategic: the Iranian nuclear program, enriched uranium and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran maintains that at this stage nuclear power is not the central issue of the negotiations: first it wants to end the war and obtain the removal of sanctions. Washington, however, continues to consider enriched uranium one of the essential points of the agreement.
Trump had promised to recover Iranian uranium: “We will get it,” he said, adding that the United States would destroy it. On the Israeli front, the prospect of a diplomatic agreement worries Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who according to the New York Times he was excluded from the negotiations, effectively moving from a role of “co-pilot” to that of “mere passenger” of the crisis.
Military options always on the table, Iran responds: “Bitter consequences”
Trump would have been presented with options to resume the war: Second CNN, the US president would not rule out an attack if the talks did not lead to a favorable agreement. Axios reports: “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll show him a thousand hells.”
Ghalibaf said Iran would pursue its “legitimate rights” both on the ground and in diplomacy, but accused the United States of not being a reliable party. He also warned that if Washington “stupidly restarts the war,” the consequences would be “stronger and more bitter” than at the start of the conflict.