A tragic plane crash near Tabrizin the province of East Azerbaijan, led to the disappearance of the Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi. This event triggered profound reflections on Iran's political future, throwing the country into a phase of uncertainty at both a national and international level.
The aircraft, which carried the president along with a high-level delegation, including the foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, crashed in circumstances that remain to be clarified. The incident thus struck down the lives of crucial figures for the Iranian leadership, generating a significant – although not traumatic – power vacuum and raising doubts about the future direction that the country will take.
Currently, operations to identify the bodies are being carried out, a complicated and painful process that adds further anguish in a nation already marked by tensions. For sure though Raisi is dead: State TV announced it, defining it “martyr in service” and announcing upcoming funerals. The sudden loss of these prominent figures raises questions about the transition of power and who will emerge in such a delicate political context.
There Supreme Leader he sought to offer comfort to the nation, stressing that the incident will not affect government stability. And it can be credible for two reasons. First: Iran's pyramid structure sees at the top Ayatollah Ali Khamenei which in fact manages life, death and miracles of the Islamic country. Under him the president, the assembly of experts, the judiciary, the parliament, the council of guardians, the pasdaran and the revolutionary guard corps.
The Iranian constitution, through article 131, establishes that new elections must be called within fifty days of the death of the president, a process that will be managed by the vice president, the speaker of Parliament and the speaker of the judiciary. From this moment, the powers that were in Raisi's hands pass directly to his deputy, Mohammad Mokhber Dezfuli, as provided by the constitution. Then we will go to the vote. “In the event of death, dismissal, resignation, absence or illness exceeding two months of the President of the Republic – we read in the Constitution – the first deputy assumes his powers and responsibilities and a council composed of the president of the Assembly, the head of the judiciary and the first deputy is required to ensure that the new President of the Republic is elected within fifty days”.
The Iranian political context, characterized by growing electoral apathy and a guardian council that tends to favor ultra-conservative candidates, further complicates the current political scene. There are questions about how the next elections will be managed and which candidates will have the opportunity to present themselves. But above all the question is: who does he have in mind Ayatollah Ali Khameneireal puppet who pulls the strings of Iranian politics?
Among the figures considered possible successors, he writes Republicnames like that of the speaker emerge Ghalibaf and the former head of the Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jaliliboth belonging to the ultra-conservative establishment, suggesting a possible preference for political continuity within the current power.
At a foreign policy level, the departure of Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian opens up a scenario of uncertainty. His potential successor, the deputy minister Ali Bagheri Kaniknown for his key role in the Vienna nuclear talks, could mark a significant shift in Iran's international relations, depending on the directions it takes within the new leadership configuration.
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The article Iran, the official announcement: “Raisi is dead”. What happens now? comes from Nicola Porro.