There are two schools of thought in Europe in front of the duties announced last night by Donald Trump on the “day of liberation”, obviously seen from the point of view of the US administration. On the one hand there are those who would like to react point on the point of the 20% “mutual” rates imposed by the American president. On the other who, see Giorgia Melonsbut not only that, invokes calm, invites everyone to treat and – without excluding countermeasures – to avoid a commercial war that would damage everyone.
Let’s start with an assumption. Rather two. First: the duties are madness, as we repeated in all the sauces on this soup, e Therefore consumers will end up damaging the global economy. Less rates is better than multiple ratesthere are few reasoning to make on this: where the goods do not pass, weapons pass. However, and we are in the second assumption, the United States remain the world military and economic power, therefore in one commercial war they start from a condition of advantage. Does it make sense to put on battling with duties?
Probably not. He explained it clearly yesterday at an event too Marco Tronchetti Provera According to which “political realism” is needed against the illogicality of the duties. Not only “negotiating with retaliation” would hurt everyone, but Europe – unable to march united – does not even have “tools” to start such a reaction. “We are faced with a turning point – he said – The first thing is to sit at the table and negotiate As the Mexican president does today. It is in the interest of everyone sitting at the table and doing it means having a real mandate to do it “. The question therefore becomes:” Who in Europe has the responsibility of defining an agreement by putting all together? “.
And here we come to the European political drama, a large single market but with enormous internal tariff barriers (Draghi Dixit) and with 27 heads that go a little on their own, represented in theory by Ursula von der Leyen who, however, certainly does not have the power to decide alone. Christine LagardeGovernor of the ECB, invoked a modification of “institutions, rules and alliances” to “make decisions in a single European direction” otherwise “others could use our differences against us”. The president of the Commission, immediately after Trump’s advertisement, spoke of “further countermeasures to protect our interests” but will not be immediately put on the field. No. The “retaliation” will only be “if the negotiations fail” because “there is an alternative path” to the war of rates. “I agree with the President Trump On the fact that others are unjustly taking advantage of the current rules and I am ready to support any effort to adapt the global commercial system to the realities of the global economy – said Ursula – but I also want to be clear: to resort to rates as the first and last tool will not solve the problem. That’s why, from the beginning, we have always been ready to negotiate with the United States To remove the remaining barriers to transatlantic trade. At the same time, we are ready to answer. “
The line is also that expressed by Giorgia Meloni (“we will do everything possible to reach an agreement with the United States, in order to avoid a commercial war that would inevitably weaken the West in favor of other global actors”). And it is probably that Trump wanted to arrive. As explained by Federico Punzi in deepening on Atlantic daily (READ HERE) The real node for Trump are the non -tariff barriers that Europe imposes on countless American products (green rules, bureaucracy, etc. etc.). The US consider the duty to 20% a “mutual” response, and the theoretical space to reach an agreement is there. The secretary of Treasury Scott Beesent clearly explained it: “My advice to all countries is at this moment: do not do retaliation. Sit. Understand it. Let’s see how it goes. Because if you react, there will be an escalation”. And nobody can afford it.
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