According to NASA, the probability that the Asteroid 2024 YR4 (I nicknamed Giorgio ascently because whoever remembers it otherwise) hit the earth, seems to be a title, a bag, a bag, has been up to NASA. While for the European space agency it is 2.8%, we are there (the difference is due to the fact that NASA and ESA use different calculation software). By April, they ensure astronomers, we will have a more precise percentage, excluding the risk of impact or not, also because the observations have undergone a stop because of the full moon, which made it not very visible.
If it passes further than the Moon, before going back between seven years, the risk of impact will be excluded, while if a few thousand kilometers from the earth the so -called risk corridor will pass will shrink. In short, we try to understand where the asteroid will focus in seven years, and the risk of impact with our wretched planet. Oh, we only lacked the asteroid.
However, no alarmism, indeed. Luca Conversi, head of the coordination center of the objects close to the land of ASA, says that “Europe runs no risk, the possible impact would affect a band that crosses the Eastern Pacific, Central America, the Atlantic, L ‘Africa, the Arabic Peninsula and reaches India, therefore the possible impact could occur most likely at sea or a desert area ».
I don’t know how to make you know where the impact will happen, if it happens, if we do not yet know the trajectory, but we trust. So much, in the most inauspicious case, I am sure that Elon will think about making Giorgio change.