28Oct 24
Trump victory? All oil and gas!
The ideological fault lines between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are obviously deep, and this will also have repercussions on the future public policies that the two candidates will implement in the event of victory in the November elections. One above all, however, deserves particular attention: the approach to energy policies. Energy, and above all the approach towards the so-called Green Deal – which we will translate as “Taliban environmentalism” – was the field where President Biden, as soon as he was elected, immediately distanced himself from Donald Trump. Readers will certainly remember how Biden, as the first political act of his presidency, at the beginning of 2021 stopped the construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which was supposed to transport oil from the Canadian province of Alberta to US refineries in Illinois and Texas, as well as to oil deposits of Cushing, Oklahoma. Its length should have been 1900 km, up to Nebraska, where it would then have been reunited with the existing pipe system. The Keystone XL represents in a plastic way the ideological division between Republicans and Democrats on energy policies, having had a somewhat turbulent experience: in 2015 Obama stopped it, in 2017 Trump resumed work and in 2021 Biden put an end to it, at least for now. The Biden administration, through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, has deployed as many as 400 billion to fight carbon emissions. A colossal subsidiary policy, half of which goes to finance only seven of the 50 states, coincidentally all swing states, including Pennsylvania, where the campaign literally takes place from city to city. The Dem policy on energy and climate is clear, with an interventionist approach and destined for certain failure, in the same wake as the European Recovery Fund. The Republican plan is equally clear: a stop to green incentives, with a return to American leadership in the field of fossil fuels, both oil and natural gas. In particular, Trump would simplify permits for new oil and gas drilling, unilaterally withdraw from the Paris Agreement, and above all guarantee the expansion of nuclear production, which even Democratic voters deeply agree with. In short, a decisive U-turn which could also have positive repercussions on the European Union, where the Green agenda is suffering significant repercussions, especially on the automotive industry side, especially in Germany. Let’s wait and see.