Ok, all the sites, including the most authoritative, following the campaign and trying to understand the mood of the voters they churn out surveys over and over again the most reliable of which, given the US electoral system, report on individual states. Do we really need to take this into account and if so to what extent?
A historical reference in this regard. In 1980, two hundred and thirty-seven days before the vote – almost as many as today – the outgoing President Jimmy Carter preceded the challenger Ronald Reagan by fourteen percentage points.
Well, on Election Day the Republican prevailed by ten. A truly notable error (do we mean a difference?): twenty-four points!
Mauro della Porta Raffo
Honorary President of the Italy USA Foundation